Publications

Submitted/Working Papers

29. Marshall R, Burgess MG. Advancing bipartisan decarbonization policies: Lessons from state-level successes and failures. SSRN 3903644.

28. Pielke Jr. R, Burgess MG, Ritchie J. Most plausible 2005-2040 emissions scenarios project less than 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100. SocArXiv: m4fdu.

27. Hegwood M, Langendorf RE, Burgess MG. Why win-wins are rare in complex environmental management. SocArXiv: cfp43.

26. Burgess MG. Five simple mathematical insights about fairness.

25. Burgess MG, Langendorf RE, Ippolito T, Pielke Jr. R. Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation. SocArXiv: vndqr.

24. Millage KD, Villaseñor-Derbez JC, Bradley D, Burgess MG, Lenihan HS, Costello C. Self-financed marine protected areas.

2021

23. Burgess MG, Carrico AR, Gaines SD, Peri A, Vanderheiden S. 2021. Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns. Nature Human Behaviour (in press; preprint at: SSRN 3789982).

22. Langendorf RE, Burgess MG. 2021. Empirically classifying network mechanisms. Scientific Reports 11: 200501. Related R package: netcom.

21. Burgess MG*, Ritchie J*, Shapland J, Pielke Jr. R. 2021. IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Research Letters 16: 014016. (*Equal contribution)

2020

20. Rao A, Burgess MG, Kaffine D. 2020. Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117: 12756-12762.

19. Burgess MG, Carrella E, Drexler M, Axtell RL, Bailey RM, Watson JR, Cabral RB, Clemence M, Costello C, Dorsett C, Gaines SD, Klein ES, Koralus P, Leonard G, Levin SA, Little LR, Lynham J, Madsen JK, Merkl A, Owashi B, Saul SE, van Putten IE, Wilcox S. 2020. Opportunities for agent-based modeling in human dimensions of fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 21: 570-587.

18. Burgess MG, Plank MJ. 2020. What unmanaged fishing patterns reveal about optimal management: applied to the balanced harvesting debate. ICES Journal of Marine Science 77: 901-910.

17. Carrella E, Saul S, Marshall K, Burgess MG, Drexler M, Cabral RB, Bailey R, Madsen JK, Dorsett C. 2020. Simple adaptive rules describe fishing behaviour better than perfect rationality in the U.S. west coast groundfish fishery. Ecological Economics 169: 106449.

2019

16. Burgess MG, Fredston-Hermann A, Tilman D, Loreau M, Gaines SD. 2019. Broadly inflicted stressors can cause ecosystem thinning. Theoretical Ecology 12: 207-223.

15. Bailey R, Carrella E, Axtell RL, Burgess MG, Cabral RB, Drexler M, Dorsett C, Madsen JK, Merkl A, Saul S. 2019. A computational approach to managing coupled human-environmental systems: The POSEIDON model of ocean fisheries. Sustainability Science 14: 259-275.

2018

14. Tallis HM, Hawthorne PL, Polasky S, Reid J, Beck MW, Brauman K, Bielicki JM, Binder S, Burgess MG, Cassidy E, Clark A, Fargione J, Game ET, Gerber J, Isbell F, Kiesecker J, McDonald R, Metian M, Molnar JL, Mueller ND, O'Connell CO, Ovando D, Troell M, Boucher T, McPeek B. 2018. An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment 16: 563-570.

13. Burgess MG, Gaines SD. 2018. The scale of life and its lessons for humanity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115: 6328-6330. (Companion to Bar-On et al. 2018)

12. Burgess MG*, McDermott GR*, Owashi B, Peavey Reeves LE, Clavelle T, Ovando D, Wallace BP, Lewison RL, Gaines SD, Costello C. 2018. Protecting marine mammals, turtles, and birds by rebuilding global fisheries. Science 359: 1255-1258. (*Equal contribution. Code here.)

11. Burgess MG, Clemence M, McDermott GR, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2018. Five rules for pragmatic blue growth. Marine Policy 87: 331-339.

2017

10. Burgess MG, Costello C, Fredston-Hermann A, Pinsky ML, Gaines SD, Tilman D, Polasky S. 2017. Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: 3945-3950. (Cover article. Open-access arXiv version here.)

9. Burgess MG, Giacomini HC, Szuwalski CS, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2017. Describing ecosystem contexts with single-species models: A theoretical synthesis for fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 18: 264-284.

8. Jacobsen NS, Burgess MG, Andersen KH. 2017. Efficiency of fisheries is increasing at the ecosystem level. Fish and Fisheries 18: 199-211. (Model code and web interface here.)

7. Szuwalski CS, Burgess MG, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2017. High fishery catches through trophic cascades in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: 717-721. (See also Commentary in same issue.)

2016 and earlier

6. Williams R*, Burgess MG*, Ashe E, Gaines SD, Reeves RR. 2016. U.S. seafood import restriction presents opportunity and risk. Science 354: 1372-1374. (*Equal contribution)

5. Burgess MG, Diekert FK, Jacobsen NS, Andersen KH, Gaines SD. 2016. Remaining questions in the case for balanced harvesting. Fish and Fisheries 17: 1216-1226.

4. Burgess MG, McDermott GR. 2015. Resolving disputes over ocean calamities. BioScience 65: 1115-1116.

3. Burgess MG. 2015. Consequences of fleet diversification in managed and unmanaged fisheries. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72: 54-70. (Open-access arXiv version here.)

2. Burgess MG, Polasky S, Tilman D. 2013. Predicting overfishing and extinction threats in multispecies fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 15943-15948. (See also Commentary in same issue.)

1. Burgess MG. 2009. Sub-optimal pit construction in predatory ant lion larvae. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 379-385.

Letters:

1. Burgess MG, Fredston-Hermann A, Pinsky ML, Gaines SD, Tilman D. 2017. Reply to Le Pape et al: Management is key to preventing marine extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: E6275-E6276.

Technical reports:

4. Burgess MG, Millage K, Ovando D, Thomas L, Rubino LL, Costello C. Transferable effort vs. transferable catch in age-structured fisheries. Report to The Nature Conservancy, September 12, 2018.

3. Millage K, Burgess MG, Strauss K, Lenihan HS, Costello C. Ocean Halos: A conceptual model of marine zoning in French Polynesia. Report to The Nature Conservancy, October 10, 2017.

2. Millage K, Tsukayama L, Owashi B, Clemence M, Burgess MG, Gaines SD. Transfer effects following decline in the United States pelagic longline fleet. Report to the Environmental Defense Fund, December 24, 2016.

1. Burgess MG, Gaines SD. Relative impacts of fishing on bycatch and target species drive long-term threats and tradeoffs. Report to the Environmental Defense Fund, October 7, 2016.