Submitted/Working Papers

37. Burgess MG*, Van Boven L*, Wagner G*, Wong-Parodi G*, Baker K, Boykoff M, Converse BA, Dilling L, Gilligan JM, Inbar Y, Markowitz E, Moyer JD, Newton P, Raimi K, Shrum T, Vandenbergh M. Supply, demand, and polarization challenges facing U.S. climate policies. (*Equal contribution)

36. Burgess MG. Five considerations for twenty-first-century climate policy.

35. Kroeger GD, Burgess MG. Electric utility plans are consistent with Renewable Portfolio Standards and Clean Energy Standards in most U.S. states.

34. Marshall R, Anderson SE, Van Boven L, Al-Shawaf L, Burgess MG. Neutral and negative effects of  policy bundling on support for decarbonization.

33. Burgess MG. Five simple mathematical insights about fairness.

32. Burgess MG, Langendorf RE, Ippolito T, Pielke Jr. R. Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation. SocArXiv: vndqr.


31. Hegwood M, Burgess MG, Costigliolo EM, Smith P, Bajželj B, Saunders H, Davis SJ. 2023. Rebound effects could offset more than half of avoided food loss and waste. Nature Food 4: 585-595.  Free read-only version.

30. Burgess MG, Langendorf RE, Moyer JD, Dancer A, Hughes BB, Tilman D. 2023. Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. Communications Earth & Environment 4: 220.

29. Burgess MG, Becker SL, Langendorf RE, Fredston A, Brooks CM. 2023. Climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research. ICES Journal of Marine Science 80: 1163-1178. Editor's Choice.


28. Burgess MG, Becker SL. 2022. Good and bad news for ocean predators. Science 378: 596-597. (Companion to Juan-Jordá et al. 2022)

27. Marshall R, Burgess MG. 2022. Advancing bipartisan decarbonization policies: Lessons from state-level successes and failures. Climatic Change 171, 17. Correction to Table 2.

26. Hegwood M, Langendorf RE, Burgess MG. 2022. Why win-wins are rare in complex environmental management. Nature Sustainability 5: 674-680.

25. Pielke Jr. R, Burgess MG, Ritchie J. 2022. Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100. Environmental Research Letters 17: 024027.


24. Burgess MG, Carrico AR, Gaines SD, Peri A, Vanderheiden S. 2021. Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns. Nature Human Behaviour 5: 1608-1621.

23. Millage KD, Villaseñor-Derbez JC, Bradley D, Burgess MG, Lenihan HS, Costello C. 2021. Self-financed marine protected areas. Environmental Research Letters 16: 125001.

22. Langendorf RE, Burgess MG. 2021. Empirically classifying network mechanisms. Scientific Reports 11: 200501. Related R package: netcom.

21. Burgess MG*, Ritchie J*, Shapland J, Pielke Jr. R. 2021. IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Research Letters 16: 014016. (*Equal contribution)


20. Rao A, Burgess MG, Kaffine D. 2020. Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117: 12756-12762.

19. Burgess MG, Carrella E, Drexler M, Axtell RL, Bailey RM, Watson JR, Cabral RB, Clemence M, Costello C, Dorsett C, Gaines SD, Klein ES, Koralus P, Leonard G, Levin SA, Little LR, Lynham J, Madsen JK, Merkl A, Owashi B, Saul SE, van Putten IE, Wilcox S. 2020. Opportunities for agent-based modeling in human dimensions of fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 21: 570-587.

18. Burgess MG, Plank MJ. 2020. What unmanaged fishing patterns reveal about optimal management: applied to the balanced harvesting debate. ICES Journal of Marine Science 77: 901-910.

17. Carrella E, Saul S, Marshall K, Burgess MG, Drexler M, Cabral RB, Bailey R, Madsen JK, Dorsett C. 2020. Simple adaptive rules describe fishing behaviour better than perfect rationality in the U.S. west coast groundfish fishery. Ecological Economics 169: 106449.


16. Burgess MG, Fredston-Hermann A, Tilman D, Loreau M, Gaines SD. 2019. Broadly inflicted stressors can cause ecosystem thinning. Theoretical Ecology 12: 207-223.

15. Bailey R, Carrella E, Axtell RL, Burgess MG, Cabral RB, Drexler M, Dorsett C, Madsen JK, Merkl A, Saul S. 2019. A computational approach to managing coupled human-environmental systems: The POSEIDON model of ocean fisheries. Sustainability Science 14: 259-275.


14. Tallis HM, Hawthorne PL, Polasky S, Reid J, Beck MW, Brauman K, Bielicki JM, Binder S, Burgess MG, Cassidy E, Clark A, Fargione J, Game ET, Gerber J, Isbell F, Kiesecker J, McDonald R, Metian M, Molnar JL, Mueller ND, O'Connell CO, Ovando D, Troell M, Boucher T, McPeek B. 2018. An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment 16: 563-570.

13. Burgess MG, Gaines SD. 2018. The scale of life and its lessons for humanity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115: 6328-6330. (Companion to Bar-On et al. 2018

12. Burgess MG*, McDermott GR*, Owashi B, Peavey Reeves LE, Clavelle T, Ovando D, Wallace BP, Lewison RL, Gaines SD, Costello C. 2018. Protecting marine mammals, turtles, and birds by rebuilding global fisheries. Science 359: 1255-1258. (*Equal contribution. Code here.)

11. Burgess MG, Clemence M, McDermott GR, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2018. Five rules for pragmatic blue growth. Marine Policy 87: 331-339.


10. Burgess MG, Costello C, Fredston-Hermann A, Pinsky ML, Gaines SD, Tilman D, Polasky S. 2017. Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: 3945-3950. (Cover article. Open-access arXiv version here.)

9. Burgess MG, Giacomini HC, Szuwalski CS, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2017. Describing ecosystem contexts with single-species models: A theoretical synthesis for fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 18: 264-284.

8. Jacobsen NS, Burgess MG, Andersen KH. 2017. Efficiency of fisheries is increasing at the ecosystem level. Fish and Fisheries 18: 199-211. (Model code and web interface here.)

7. Szuwalski CS, Burgess MG, Costello C, Gaines SD. 2017. High fishery catches through trophic cascades in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: 717-721. (See also Commentary in same issue.)

2016 and earlier

6. Williams R*, Burgess MG*, Ashe E, Gaines SD, Reeves RR. 2016. U.S. seafood import restriction presents opportunity and risk. Science 354: 1372-1374. (*Equal contribution) 

5. Burgess MG, Diekert FK, Jacobsen NS, Andersen KH, Gaines SD. 2016. Remaining questions in the case for balanced harvesting. Fish and Fisheries 17: 1216-1226.

4. Burgess MG, McDermott GR. 2015. Resolving disputes over ocean calamities. BioScience 65: 1115-1116.

3. Burgess MG. 2015. Consequences of fleet diversification in managed and unmanaged fisheries. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72: 54-70. (Open-access arXiv version here.)

2. Burgess MG, Polasky S, Tilman D. 2013. Predicting overfishing and extinction threats in multispecies fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 15943-15948. (See also Commentary in same issue.)

1. Burgess MG. 2009. Sub-optimal pit construction in predatory ant lion larvae. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 379-385.


2. Burgess MG, Pielke Jr. R, Ritchie J. 2022. Catastrophic climate risks should be neither understated nor overstated. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119: e2214347119.

1. Burgess MG, Fredston-Hermann A, Pinsky ML, Gaines SD, Tilman D. 2017. Reply to Le Pape et al: Management is key to preventing marine extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114: E6275-E6276.

Technical reports:

5. Vitale KS, Hedges S, eds. Clark Artis R, Burgess MG, et al., contributing authors. 2022. Reclaiming the Culture of Higher Education: A best practices guide for advancing open inquiry, viewpoint diversity, and constructive disagreement. Heterodox Academy.

4. Burgess MG, Millage K, Ovando D, Thomas L, Rubino LL, Costello C. Transferable effort vs. transferable catch in age-structured fisheries. Report to The Nature Conservancy, September 12, 2018. 

3. Millage K, Burgess MG, Strauss K, Lenihan HS, Costello C. Ocean Halos: A conceptual model of marine zoning in French Polynesia. Report to The Nature Conservancy, October 10, 2017.

2. Millage K, Tsukayama L, Owashi B, Clemence M, Burgess MG, Gaines SD. Transfer effects following decline in the United States pelagic longline fleet. Report to the Environmental Defense Fund, December 24, 2016.

1. Burgess MG, Gaines SD. Relative impacts of fishing on bycatch and target species drive long-term threats and tradeoffs. Report to the Environmental Defense Fund, October 7, 2016.